* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 96 89 82 64 52 43 38 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 100 96 89 82 64 52 43 38 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 104 105 102 96 80 59 44 37 34 35 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 35 40 46 50 57 49 27 32 31 43 47 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 2 6 15 6 10 6 3 5 5 10 SHEAR DIR 203 204 208 208 212 213 216 222 228 224 221 212 205 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.1 27.3 23.8 20.8 16.5 19.5 19.9 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 147 141 137 128 129 97 83 74 82 84 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 128 124 122 112 108 84 75 70 76 78 75 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -52.5 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 42 38 39 37 41 44 48 56 67 62 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 36 37 40 40 44 41 36 36 31 30 30 35 850 MB ENV VOR 77 86 97 124 141 102 74 40 52 98 141 215 262 200 MB DIV 85 92 59 71 65 70 43 69 63 77 39 67 64 700-850 TADV -18 -22 -36 -32 -35 -13 19 13 1 -32 -67 -139 -79 LAND (KM) 607 663 735 844 962 857 705 570 468 380 718 1196 1535 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.8 32.3 32.9 33.5 36.3 38.7 40.6 42.6 43.5 43.8 45.0 47.4 LONG(DEG W) 71.6 70.3 68.9 67.3 65.7 61.9 60.0 58.1 55.7 51.4 44.9 37.7 30.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 15 18 17 13 13 15 20 25 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 30 38 28 23 13 11 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -22. -32. -43. -50. -56. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -20. -27. -41. -46. -42. -40. -35. -33. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 7. 1. 0. -6. -9. -9. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -11. -18. -36. -48. -57. -62. -73. -83. -86. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.2 71.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 631.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 19( 37) 8( 42) 0( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 96 89 82 64 52 43 38 27 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 95 88 81 63 51 42 37 26 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 89 82 64 52 43 38 27 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 83 65 53 44 39 28 18 DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 63 51 42 37 26 16 DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 73 61 52 47 36 26 DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 100 96 87 81 77 65 56 51 40 30 DIS DIS