* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 85 83 83 75 68 62 57 51 44 35 28 V (KT) LAND 85 86 85 83 83 75 68 62 57 51 44 35 28 V (KT) LGEM 85 87 89 90 91 89 76 58 46 40 38 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 30 37 38 51 53 39 27 25 26 45 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 3 14 5 3 5 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 223 205 204 208 210 211 209 215 243 236 248 251 235 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 27.9 27.1 27.1 26.9 24.4 19.5 15.5 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 147 148 151 137 127 127 124 102 80 73 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 126 126 132 121 109 107 105 88 73 69 81 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -51.2 -52.3 -53.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 48 43 38 42 48 53 59 63 69 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 34 35 39 41 45 44 41 38 36 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 27 64 85 93 90 139 113 73 42 29 68 112 108 200 MB DIV 58 70 75 87 73 78 50 43 60 71 58 47 27 700-850 TADV 0 -10 -24 -17 -23 -47 -18 7 37 13 5 -49 -109 LAND (KM) 526 567 629 669 718 962 994 845 743 627 445 514 954 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.9 31.1 31.5 31.9 33.0 34.8 36.8 38.8 40.9 42.7 43.7 44.0 LONG(DEG W) 73.9 72.6 71.4 70.4 69.4 65.9 62.8 60.8 58.6 56.2 52.9 48.1 41.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 9 13 15 14 13 14 15 16 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 21 29 30 37 32 17 13 9 14 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -11. -16. -21. -27. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -31. -33. -33. -30. -28. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 13. 10. 5. 2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -2. -10. -17. -23. -28. -34. -41. -50. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 30.6 73.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 545.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 3.9% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 6.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 12.0% 12.0% 13.0% 2.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 9( 26) 5( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 86 85 83 83 75 68 62 57 51 44 35 28 18HR AGO 85 84 83 81 81 73 66 60 55 49 42 33 26 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 79 71 64 58 53 47 40 31 24 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 75 67 60 54 49 43 36 27 20 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 58 51 45 40 34 27 18 DIS IN 6HR 85 86 77 71 68 63 56 50 45 39 32 23 16 IN 12HR 85 86 85 76 70 66 59 53 48 42 35 26 19