* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/17/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 81 81 80 76 72 65 57 50 45 42 37 V (KT) LAND 80 80 81 81 80 76 72 65 57 50 45 42 37 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 83 84 84 86 80 65 49 40 37 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 29 26 29 37 41 54 44 39 25 24 27 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -1 2 0 3 13 9 3 5 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 222 223 206 204 211 200 220 205 237 232 228 235 252 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.3 27.1 24.2 25.3 21.8 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 145 146 149 146 138 130 126 99 108 89 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 125 122 122 128 129 121 112 105 83 91 80 77 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -52.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 47 43 40 43 52 51 57 63 57 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 33 34 35 38 43 44 40 37 35 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 58 74 81 119 127 82 40 18 44 96 114 200 MB DIV 22 57 67 68 78 77 34 59 47 80 70 57 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 -13 -22 -13 -32 -23 -9 14 26 1 -21 -107 LAND (KM) 497 513 537 583 635 799 1029 914 727 605 598 501 576 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.2 31.3 32.2 33.7 35.9 38.5 40.1 41.0 42.2 43.9 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 73.8 72.8 72.0 71.1 68.2 64.5 61.4 59.9 58.6 56.6 52.7 46.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 11 15 16 15 12 9 12 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 25 29 31 30 14 11 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -25. -29. -32. -31. -29. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 13. 15. 11. 6. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -8. -15. -23. -30. -35. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.5 74.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.15 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 500.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 16.2% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 6.1% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 12.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 10.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 7( 20) 5( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 81 81 80 76 72 65 57 50 45 42 37 18HR AGO 80 79 80 80 79 75 71 64 56 49 44 41 36 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 75 71 67 60 52 45 40 37 32 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 65 61 54 46 39 34 31 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT