* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 81 81 81 78 74 67 63 56 49 50 43 V (KT) LAND 80 81 81 81 81 78 74 67 63 56 49 50 43 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 84 86 87 87 84 74 59 46 38 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 24 26 27 32 36 49 59 52 35 27 17 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 1 0 0 -1 0 11 5 3 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 214 225 224 203 206 210 209 215 217 241 232 216 254 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 27.9 27.4 27.2 26.9 23.3 22.8 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 146 145 146 153 138 132 128 123 93 92 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 121 123 122 125 132 123 116 109 100 79 80 80 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 48 46 41 40 44 46 48 53 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 31 32 33 36 38 41 43 41 38 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 22 60 65 79 120 100 53 19 47 81 95 200 MB DIV 19 27 55 63 65 64 57 14 9 53 43 53 42 700-850 TADV -7 1 0 -6 -15 -19 -48 -57 -27 4 5 -19 -20 LAND (KM) 474 492 508 532 568 684 883 1009 794 637 549 588 520 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.6 32.8 34.7 37.5 39.6 40.7 41.5 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 74.8 74.1 73.2 72.3 70.1 66.9 62.6 60.4 59.4 58.4 56.0 51.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 12 17 18 14 9 8 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 23 24 28 38 21 15 15 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -20. -27. -32. -33. -31. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 12. 8. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -13. -17. -24. -31. -30. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.3 75.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.18 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.13 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 507.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 17.4% 12.8% 10.8% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 4.7% 3.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 7.4% 5.4% 4.2% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 9.0% 7.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 8( 21) 6( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 81 81 81 81 78 74 67 63 56 49 50 43 18HR AGO 80 79 79 79 79 76 72 65 61 54 47 48 41 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 76 73 69 62 58 51 44 45 38 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 67 63 56 52 45 38 39 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT