* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/16/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 84 84 84 81 83 80 76 65 60 53 52 V (KT) LAND 80 83 84 84 84 81 83 80 76 65 60 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 87 89 91 92 90 83 70 55 45 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 24 24 23 34 36 46 48 38 27 23 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 2 4 2 1 1 6 15 2 6 5 0 SHEAR DIR 231 219 227 222 204 215 202 216 209 221 224 239 237 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.9 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.5 23.8 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 142 145 144 148 151 135 130 127 131 97 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 119 121 122 127 131 118 112 107 108 83 77 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -52.3 -53.3 -53.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 8 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 54 51 49 48 48 44 41 37 42 50 54 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 31 32 34 39 41 44 40 38 36 35 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 17 27 53 72 105 115 94 55 46 50 79 200 MB DIV 43 28 28 50 46 63 78 46 67 36 51 46 64 700-850 TADV -2 -5 0 0 -5 -11 -20 -11 10 12 10 1 -13 LAND (KM) 449 474 489 513 525 615 726 910 955 791 668 580 600 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.7 31.1 31.9 33.0 34.9 37.0 39.0 40.5 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 76.2 75.6 75.0 74.3 73.7 71.6 69.3 66.5 63.7 61.7 60.2 58.1 55.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 9 12 14 14 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 23 24 23 30 33 19 17 18 20 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -24. -26. -25. -24. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 12. 10. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. 3. 0. -4. -15. -20. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.1 76.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.10 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 492.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 20.0% 14.6% 12.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 7.8% 5.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.9% 9.4% 6.8% 4.8% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 14.0% 26.0% 25.0% 14.0% 5.0% 4.0% 9.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 9( 15) 9( 23) 8( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 84 84 84 81 83 80 76 65 60 53 52 18HR AGO 80 79 80 80 80 77 79 76 72 61 56 49 48 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 76 73 75 72 68 57 52 45 44 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 67 69 66 62 51 46 39 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 62 64 61 57 46 41 34 33 IN 12HR 80 83 84 75 69 65 67 64 60 49 44 37 36