* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/16/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 81 83 85 85 86 89 82 72 61 54 49 V (KT) LAND 75 79 81 83 85 85 86 89 82 72 61 54 49 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 83 86 89 92 92 90 80 65 50 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 17 23 23 28 33 39 55 52 36 41 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 0 3 3 0 -2 0 4 8 5 4 -4 SHEAR DIR 270 249 228 225 223 206 220 213 221 231 259 258 275 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.3 27.3 27.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 142 144 146 150 146 137 129 128 128 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 116 118 121 124 129 128 119 109 106 105 97 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.9 -53.7 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 49 48 48 43 42 44 45 46 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 28 30 32 35 41 42 42 39 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR -1 8 18 15 14 51 82 108 84 45 -8 -2 -62 200 MB DIV 33 43 25 13 32 63 73 77 37 19 35 40 36 700-850 TADV 3 0 -5 -2 0 -14 -10 -33 -42 -19 14 17 25 LAND (KM) 396 457 479 499 524 575 678 829 1000 877 724 658 624 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.8 31.2 32.1 34.0 36.0 37.9 39.4 40.6 LONG(DEG W) 76.8 76.2 75.6 75.0 74.4 72.6 70.6 67.9 64.5 62.3 61.1 59.4 56.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 7 8 10 15 15 12 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 23 23 23 28 34 32 15 15 23 14 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -19. -25. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 17. 19. 19. 14. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 14. 7. -3. -14. -21. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.8 76.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.13 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 478.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.3% 22.5% 16.3% 13.1% 11.1% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.3% 22.5% 17.4% 5.9% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 11.8% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.1% 15.2% 11.4% 6.7% 4.4% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 35.0% 32.0% 22.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 10( 21) 10( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 81 83 85 85 86 89 82 72 61 54 49 18HR AGO 75 74 76 78 80 80 81 84 77 67 56 49 44 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 75 75 76 79 72 62 51 44 39 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 67 68 71 64 54 43 36 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT