* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 81 81 83 82 83 83 77 66 60 53 V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 81 81 83 82 83 83 77 66 60 53 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 82 84 85 89 89 87 86 73 57 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 14 19 25 24 35 33 44 50 43 36 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 -1 1 7 5 6 3 SHEAR DIR 262 269 236 225 230 214 219 204 216 214 233 236 259 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.3 28.9 28.8 27.9 27.1 27.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 133 136 143 141 151 150 137 126 127 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 111 111 115 120 120 131 130 118 108 105 96 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -53.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 8 6 5 5 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 53 50 50 45 43 44 46 49 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 26 32 33 36 40 41 39 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -6 12 16 19 49 70 96 102 88 42 1 -4 200 MB DIV 23 36 45 15 5 50 62 80 46 48 -8 52 38 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 -4 0 -6 -10 -24 -19 -44 8 12 23 LAND (KM) 325 376 427 466 478 526 604 720 926 1033 864 709 646 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.9 31.4 32.2 33.8 36.1 38.2 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.0 76.5 76.0 75.4 73.9 72.0 69.8 66.7 64.2 62.4 60.8 59.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 7 9 12 13 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 37 29 25 23 22 20 20 33 32 15 15 24 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 18. 20. 16. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 7. 8. 8. 2. -9. -15. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.6 77.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.08 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 457.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.1% 21.4% 15.6% 13.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.2% 19.1% 14.3% 5.3% 1.6% 4.7% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 19.4% 1.6% 0.9% 2.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.6% 14.0% 10.3% 6.7% 4.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 44.0% 37.0% 24.0% 11.0% 28.0% 11.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 9( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 80 81 81 83 82 83 83 77 66 60 53 18HR AGO 75 74 76 77 77 79 78 79 79 73 62 56 49 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 72 74 73 74 74 68 57 51 44 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 67 66 67 67 61 50 44 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT