* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 73 76 77 81 81 85 80 71 60 51 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 73 76 77 81 81 85 80 71 60 51 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 72 75 76 81 86 86 86 77 61 46 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 18 16 18 25 26 34 45 52 50 30 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -6 1 0 2 -1 0 5 7 12 4 SHEAR DIR 259 260 265 240 225 232 212 211 207 217 220 248 258 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.4 28.4 28.5 29.0 27.8 27.2 26.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 133 133 141 142 145 154 137 129 119 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 110 111 112 120 121 126 137 121 113 102 84 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -53.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 57 54 50 49 44 43 46 47 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 23 26 27 32 34 39 41 41 37 34 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -15 -5 9 19 28 61 100 112 97 59 -15 -6 200 MB DIV 31 32 36 30 18 37 53 74 72 48 21 46 29 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 0 -3 -1 -15 -17 -46 -39 -15 36 26 LAND (KM) 287 332 378 427 470 524 598 699 910 1076 944 832 715 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.4 30.6 31.1 32.0 33.7 36.0 38.3 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.4 77.0 76.5 76.0 74.4 72.5 70.4 67.0 63.5 60.3 57.3 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 6 7 9 12 16 17 17 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 43 35 29 25 22 21 21 28 35 13 10 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -19. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 19. 22. 21. 15. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 8. 11. 12. 16. 16. 20. 15. 6. -5. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 29.3 77.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.93 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.17 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 22.2% 15.9% 13.2% 11.2% 11.4% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 12.0% 20.9% 15.3% 5.5% 1.6% 3.6% 1.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 7.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 14.7% 10.6% 6.4% 4.3% 5.0% 4.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 12.0% 30.0% 24.0% 17.0% 5.0% 12.0% 31.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 6( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 72 73 76 77 81 81 85 80 71 60 51 18HR AGO 65 64 68 69 72 73 77 77 81 76 67 56 47 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 65 66 70 70 74 69 60 49 40 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 59 63 63 67 62 53 42 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT