* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/15/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 65 68 72 75 74 74 71 64 49 40 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 65 68 72 75 74 74 71 64 49 40 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 64 67 71 76 77 75 71 58 42 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 22 21 17 27 28 38 44 60 60 48 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 -3 -4 1 -1 0 -1 0 9 2 5 SHEAR DIR 264 258 257 257 232 233 219 224 208 222 223 240 242 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.3 29.1 27.9 27.1 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 138 136 135 138 143 142 155 138 128 119 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 114 113 113 116 122 123 136 122 112 102 96 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -53.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 8 7 8 6 5 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 56 56 49 48 42 41 40 42 43 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 23 23 26 28 30 32 35 38 31 27 850 MB ENV VOR 8 0 -15 -4 7 16 47 78 99 83 57 -17 -40 200 MB DIV 31 39 36 31 31 24 45 45 69 34 36 7 49 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 2 1 -2 -9 -12 -37 -42 -41 20 29 LAND (KM) 262 285 313 363 403 445 506 621 790 1022 949 846 699 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.6 30.9 31.3 32.2 33.6 35.6 37.9 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 77.9 77.8 77.3 76.8 75.5 73.7 71.3 68.3 64.9 61.3 58.3 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 12 15 17 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 42 33 30 25 20 21 33 14 8 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -14. -22. -30. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 17. 20. 11. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 19. 19. 16. 9. -6. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.1 78.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.28 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 20.1% 14.2% 12.0% 9.7% 11.3% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 14.8% 11.1% 5.7% 1.4% 3.3% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 11.7% 8.6% 6.1% 3.7% 4.9% 4.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 40.0% 26.0% 12.0% 3.0% 16.0% 37.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 62 65 68 72 75 74 74 71 64 49 40 18HR AGO 55 54 57 60 63 67 70 69 69 66 59 44 35 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 57 61 64 63 63 60 53 38 29 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 52 55 54 54 51 44 29 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT