* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/15/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 64 66 70 75 78 79 79 77 65 57 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 64 66 70 75 78 79 79 77 65 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 69 74 78 80 81 80 70 54 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 16 21 19 21 24 30 34 47 57 53 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 1 5 3 4 SHEAR DIR 273 258 254 265 267 226 235 217 219 214 218 221 231 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.5 28.4 29.0 28.4 27.5 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 135 134 135 143 142 153 145 133 126 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 114 112 112 114 121 122 134 129 118 109 105 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 60 56 55 52 48 42 38 38 40 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 20 21 24 27 30 31 35 40 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 11 -8 0 8 29 56 89 104 87 35 -3 200 MB DIV 22 40 51 31 18 25 31 31 67 66 47 49 48 700-850 TADV 6 4 1 4 3 -3 -1 -15 -17 -38 -25 23 11 LAND (KM) 274 278 290 327 365 439 496 553 707 926 1022 912 765 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.4 30.7 31.2 31.6 32.6 34.6 36.8 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.5 77.2 76.0 74.4 72.4 69.8 66.5 62.5 59.3 56.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 6 8 10 13 17 18 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 44 37 32 25 23 18 34 26 14 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -21. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 17. 24. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 22. 10. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.6 77.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.28 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 19.7% 13.9% 11.8% 9.2% 11.5% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 16.0% 9.7% 3.9% 1.2% 5.2% 2.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 12.2% 8.0% 5.3% 3.5% 5.6% 5.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 26.0% 20.0% 12.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 62 64 66 70 75 78 79 79 77 65 57 18HR AGO 55 54 57 59 61 65 70 73 74 74 72 60 52 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 59 64 67 68 68 66 54 46 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 51 56 59 60 60 58 46 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT