* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/15/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 60 64 69 73 75 77 73 73 57 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 60 64 69 73 75 77 73 73 57 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 59 62 67 72 76 77 78 73 61 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 12 16 19 16 24 25 36 39 61 64 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -2 -1 -5 0 0 -1 1 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 276 272 254 256 261 240 236 226 223 213 221 218 228 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.9 29.0 28.1 27.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 139 138 136 140 138 151 154 140 135 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 115 115 115 115 118 118 132 136 124 118 105 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 55 58 60 61 56 56 50 50 44 44 45 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 20 20 21 25 27 29 32 35 41 34 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -3 10 9 -19 6 6 42 74 108 89 67 -6 200 MB DIV 30 18 35 42 27 21 23 52 36 74 34 71 29 700-850 TADV 8 6 4 2 4 0 -1 -6 -15 -42 -53 -53 -8 LAND (KM) 270 275 269 291 316 421 471 517 655 857 1047 967 850 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.3 29.6 30.2 30.6 31.0 31.5 32.4 33.8 35.7 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.6 77.8 77.9 77.8 77.6 76.5 75.0 73.3 70.6 67.4 63.9 60.5 57.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 6 8 9 13 15 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 41 46 47 42 30 25 17 28 32 17 12 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -10. -18. -27. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 26. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 23. 23. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.0 77.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 17.3% 12.3% 10.6% 7.9% 10.6% 12.9% 7.9% Logistic: 2.1% 8.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.4% 2.5% 2.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 8.7% 5.4% 3.9% 2.8% 4.4% 5.2% 3.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 23.0% 17.0% 6.0% 2.0% 8.0% 9.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 58 60 64 69 73 75 77 73 73 57 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 57 61 66 70 72 74 70 70 54 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 51 55 60 64 66 68 64 64 48 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 46 51 55 57 59 55 55 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT