* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 53 56 62 68 73 77 76 80 78 67 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 53 56 62 68 73 77 76 80 78 67 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 51 54 61 69 73 75 77 77 71 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 12 15 18 20 27 29 36 43 55 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 -5 -2 -3 1 0 5 -3 4 5 3 SHEAR DIR 263 281 274 255 249 263 230 239 218 230 218 219 220 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.4 29.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 137 138 141 136 140 137 143 159 140 136 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 116 115 117 114 117 116 124 140 124 119 114 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 1 700-500 MB RH 56 55 58 61 60 55 51 49 46 44 43 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 19 20 23 25 28 31 31 37 40 38 850 MB ENV VOR 17 -11 -10 7 4 -12 5 18 49 85 105 113 105 200 MB DIV 22 25 21 41 45 21 30 33 47 56 86 72 59 700-850 TADV 2 7 4 4 1 4 -1 -1 -10 -15 -32 -35 -1 LAND (KM) 290 276 264 271 285 378 430 484 580 756 1006 1021 898 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.1 28.7 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.7 30.9 31.2 31.8 33.0 34.7 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 77.2 77.6 77.9 77.9 77.9 77.1 75.6 74.2 72.0 69.0 65.4 62.1 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 6 7 8 11 15 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 44 47 48 33 27 19 19 32 17 16 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -8. -14. -21. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 14. 21. 24. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 23. 28. 32. 31. 35. 33. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.4 77.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.8% 11.2% 9.7% 7.0% 9.8% 12.0% 9.1% Logistic: 2.2% 12.5% 6.3% 2.1% 0.9% 3.5% 4.4% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 9.5% 5.9% 3.9% 2.6% 4.4% 5.5% 3.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 29.0% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 53 56 62 68 73 77 76 80 78 67 18HR AGO 45 44 46 50 53 59 65 70 74 73 77 75 64 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 54 60 65 69 68 72 70 59 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 44 50 55 59 58 62 60 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT