* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/14/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 60 65 72 75 78 77 79 79 76 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 60 65 72 75 78 77 79 79 76 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 57 61 68 73 76 77 78 79 77 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 14 13 12 18 13 24 25 34 39 51 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -3 -6 -5 0 -2 1 0 1 1 1 11 SHEAR DIR 247 261 282 286 267 268 245 247 234 228 216 224 211 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.7 29.3 28.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 137 141 137 136 138 138 147 158 142 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 118 116 115 117 114 113 116 117 127 139 127 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 58 61 55 55 48 49 43 44 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 20 23 23 26 27 31 34 39 850 MB ENV VOR 23 15 -20 -10 6 -20 0 8 36 73 81 105 101 200 MB DIV 18 34 19 18 33 39 33 28 40 34 73 53 105 700-850 TADV 7 4 8 5 5 4 5 1 -4 -9 -17 -29 -15 LAND (KM) 297 282 281 270 255 356 434 479 536 635 801 1032 945 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.7 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.8 31.3 32.0 33.5 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 77.1 77.4 77.6 77.9 78.1 77.3 76.3 75.2 73.3 71.1 68.3 64.9 60.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 5 5 7 9 11 14 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 38 45 50 36 29 25 17 24 34 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 6. 9. 10. 15. 19. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 27. 30. 33. 32. 34. 34. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.1 77.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 17.2% 12.3% 9.2% 9.0% 10.5% 13.5% 11.7% Logistic: 3.7% 16.0% 8.0% 3.2% 1.3% 6.6% 10.2% 6.9% Bayesian: 4.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 11.5% 6.8% 4.2% 3.4% 5.7% 7.9% 6.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 56 60 65 72 75 78 77 79 79 76 18HR AGO 45 44 48 51 55 60 67 70 73 72 74 74 71 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 48 53 60 63 66 65 67 67 64 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 44 51 54 57 56 58 58 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT