* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/14/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 58 61 68 74 78 80 79 80 80 79 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 58 61 68 74 78 80 79 80 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 61 65 72 78 80 81 80 79 77 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 12 13 10 12 16 20 28 33 37 40 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 0 1 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 273 232 252 281 290 254 257 238 245 231 223 219 224 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 29.0 28.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 136 135 137 141 137 138 139 142 152 151 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 117 115 116 118 115 116 117 120 129 130 121 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 8 7 7 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 51 56 56 55 57 59 51 47 46 42 41 39 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 16 16 19 21 22 24 26 29 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR 6 20 16 -13 -14 5 -17 0 12 31 68 70 100 200 MB DIV 3 21 37 14 14 41 10 38 19 29 48 66 89 700-850 TADV 5 6 6 9 4 2 3 0 0 -10 -12 -17 -5 LAND (KM) 352 297 256 246 235 289 380 411 468 544 664 822 1012 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.6 29.6 30.2 30.8 31.1 31.4 31.9 32.6 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 76.6 77.1 77.6 77.9 78.2 77.9 77.2 75.8 74.1 72.3 70.1 67.7 64.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 8 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 31 35 44 48 34 28 19 18 31 29 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -7. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 11. 15. 19. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 16. 23. 29. 33. 35. 34. 35. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.5 76.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 19.3% 13.8% 10.3% 10.2% 11.8% 15.4% 13.9% Logistic: 2.0% 8.1% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 3.4% 5.0% 4.2% Bayesian: 5.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 9.4% 5.9% 3.8% 3.5% 5.1% 6.8% 6.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 55 58 61 68 74 78 80 79 80 80 79 18HR AGO 45 44 49 52 55 62 68 72 74 73 74 74 73 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 54 60 64 66 65 66 66 65 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 51 55 57 56 57 57 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT