* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/14/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 51 59 65 73 76 82 85 87 87 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 51 59 65 73 76 82 85 87 87 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 47 51 59 67 72 78 83 86 87 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 7 6 10 11 9 16 17 25 23 30 29 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 0 -4 1 -1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 262 273 211 234 272 251 248 231 234 224 223 214 217 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 141 138 142 139 137 140 144 148 157 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 128 122 118 119 116 116 118 122 126 136 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.4 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 51 53 57 58 56 60 55 52 48 48 47 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 20 21 24 26 30 34 37 41 850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 21 18 -17 2 -12 2 4 32 72 80 84 200 MB DIV 14 11 29 40 5 25 12 35 17 17 48 87 66 700-850 TADV 1 3 5 5 6 4 3 0 -1 -5 -5 -14 -11 LAND (KM) 448 383 317 272 246 268 333 403 455 528 656 802 988 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.5 28.1 29.3 30.1 30.7 31.1 31.2 31.3 31.7 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.7 76.3 76.9 77.4 77.9 78.0 77.7 76.2 74.4 72.8 70.8 68.5 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 7 7 8 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 62 47 42 34 38 46 36 30 24 21 27 31 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 24. 30. 38. 41. 47. 50. 52. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.9 75.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.56 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 18.5% 13.2% 9.5% 9.3% 10.9% 13.8% 16.2% Logistic: 1.8% 8.3% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 5.3% 7.8% 8.6% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 9.3% 5.7% 3.6% 3.2% 5.4% 7.2% 8.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 27.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 48 51 59 65 73 76 82 85 87 87 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 46 54 60 68 71 77 80 82 82 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 39 47 53 61 64 70 73 75 75 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 36 42 50 53 59 62 64 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT