* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092019 09/14/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 61 67 74 78 80 80 83 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 61 67 74 78 80 80 83 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 48 56 63 69 74 78 78 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 6 7 10 8 12 17 18 28 28 32 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 -4 2 -1 2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 238 260 247 216 238 257 225 239 222 237 228 232 221 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.7 28.4 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.8 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 144 139 145 140 135 138 140 149 154 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 132 126 120 123 118 114 115 119 127 132 127 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 58 58 59 60 54 51 49 47 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 17 18 20 21 24 27 29 31 36 850 MB ENV VOR 21 1 -5 16 13 -15 -1 -25 5 9 38 63 58 200 MB DIV 33 14 7 25 36 3 42 18 46 16 20 42 49 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 8 6 5 0 0 -2 -6 -16 -13 -16 LAND (KM) 489 432 343 273 229 215 277 324 375 430 563 722 934 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.0 26.4 27.2 27.9 29.1 30.2 31.0 31.3 31.6 31.8 32.1 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.8 76.7 77.3 78.0 78.5 78.4 77.0 75.6 73.9 71.6 69.2 66.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 6 6 7 7 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 65 59 48 35 36 48 35 31 27 21 24 30 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 31. 37. 44. 48. 50. 50. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.5 75.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 NINE 09/14/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 17.2% 12.2% 8.5% 8.2% 10.0% 13.0% 18.1% Logistic: 2.1% 10.9% 5.1% 1.6% 0.6% 5.5% 11.8% 14.4% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 10.2% 5.9% 3.4% 2.9% 5.2% 8.3% 10.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 27.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 NINE 09/14/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 NINE 09/14/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 45 52 61 67 74 78 80 80 83 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 48 57 63 70 74 76 76 79 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 41 50 56 63 67 69 69 72 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 40 46 53 57 59 59 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT