* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092019 09/13/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 38 44 53 62 69 73 75 79 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 38 44 53 62 69 73 75 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 48 55 62 69 74 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 10 8 11 9 15 10 21 21 30 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -5 -3 -1 -3 1 0 2 -1 6 0 SHEAR DIR 225 236 257 255 240 255 213 238 206 232 235 232 226 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.4 28.8 29.4 28.4 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 149 150 142 147 156 141 136 140 143 148 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 131 133 124 125 130 118 116 118 119 124 127 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 6 7 7 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 54 58 58 62 56 56 50 49 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 14 13 16 18 19 21 22 26 29 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 1 -2 16 -26 9 -21 -6 2 17 53 66 200 MB DIV 16 34 0 7 20 20 33 22 44 27 18 53 31 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 3 8 6 5 6 2 -2 -3 -8 -9 LAND (KM) 495 485 417 320 229 186 189 238 338 424 478 577 698 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.6 27.2 28.6 29.6 30.6 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.7 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 75.4 76.0 76.9 77.8 78.7 79.1 78.9 76.7 74.7 73.2 71.5 69.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 9 7 5 7 9 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 63 64 59 46 35 54 50 28 32 25 21 24 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 4. 1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 13. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 28. 37. 44. 48. 50. 54. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.4 74.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 17.3% 12.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 10.5% 5.7% 2.0% 0.6% 5.9% 12.4% 16.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 10.0% 6.2% 3.5% 0.2% 2.0% 8.3% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 NINE 09/13/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 33 38 44 53 62 69 73 75 79 81 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 34 40 49 58 65 69 71 75 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 35 44 53 60 64 66 70 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 26 35 44 51 55 57 61 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT