* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092019 09/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 56 60 60 60 60 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 56 60 60 60 60 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 40 44 48 51 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 17 11 10 11 14 15 23 25 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 0 -1 -5 0 -4 1 -2 1 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 224 232 250 244 222 244 222 228 214 247 254 262 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.8 29.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 151 153 148 158 144 143 141 142 141 135 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 133 134 129 136 122 118 114 115 116 111 112 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 5 8 6 7 4 700-500 MB RH 53 51 53 50 54 58 59 58 53 47 41 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 13 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 20 0 -3 9 -10 -19 -35 1 24 34 50 200 MB DIV 19 14 16 7 2 32 10 54 7 26 12 -9 -11 700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 0 4 8 5 2 3 -3 -2 -5 -16 LAND (KM) 431 428 348 264 180 81 53 53 72 83 122 125 173 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.8 27.9 29.2 30.3 30.8 31.1 31.5 32.0 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 76.0 76.7 77.5 78.3 79.6 80.5 80.8 80.7 80.5 79.8 78.9 77.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 2 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 78 73 63 53 48 67 36 30 26 24 22 19 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 31. 35. 35. 35. 35. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.0 75.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.0% 10.1% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.8% 3.2% 1.6% 0.4% 4.3% 9.4% 12.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.7% 4.4% 3.0% 0.1% 1.4% 6.6% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 NINE 09/13/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 56 60 60 60 60 58 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 39 47 53 57 57 57 57 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 42 48 52 52 52 52 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 39 43 43 43 43 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT