* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092019 09/13/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 46 55 59 62 62 62 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 46 55 59 62 62 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 46 50 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 11 10 13 7 10 8 9 10 20 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -5 -4 0 -5 1 -4 4 -3 0 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 227 249 249 213 226 255 234 256 223 231 229 252 256 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 156 158 160 163 152 145 144 144 145 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 132 138 140 140 141 129 120 117 118 120 114 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 56 55 55 59 57 58 57 55 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 25 18 15 21 14 -9 7 -25 -15 -32 -30 -21 -23 200 MB DIV 27 17 10 16 19 0 32 6 60 -5 14 -8 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 1 1 1 3 1 5 -2 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 324 357 382 390 331 162 73 38 19 28 79 171 225 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.6 27.7 29.1 30.0 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 74.4 74.9 75.4 76.1 76.9 78.5 79.6 80.6 81.1 81.1 80.6 79.6 78.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 9 8 7 7 4 2 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 94 94 83 82 68 62 69 39 36 35 28 33 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 21. 30. 34. 37. 37. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.7 74.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 84.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.55 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 15.0% 10.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 8.3% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 5.1% 14.5% 27.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 8.1% 4.9% 3.0% 0.2% 1.7% 9.0% 9.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 NINE 09/13/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 37 46 55 59 62 62 62 64 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 44 53 57 60 60 60 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 39 48 52 55 55 55 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 31 40 44 47 47 47 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT