* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/22/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 43 41 39 36 31 29 28 26 25 22 19 17 16 19 V (KT) LAND 55 45 36 32 30 30 33 27 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 51 36 32 30 30 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 10 13 14 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 119 143 167 175 192 215 218 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 22.9 21.8 21.0 19.8 17.4 16.5 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 90 84 80 76 71 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 77 73 70 67 65 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 3 1 1 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 65 63 63 62 55 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 15 14 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 10 12 0 42 39 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 47 19 4 12 21 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 2 0 0 13 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 64 -8 -72 -109 -142 -107 0 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.7 41.5 42.2 42.7 43.2 43.8 44.0 44.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.3 71.6 72.0 72.3 72.5 71.6 69.0 65.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 5 4 7 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 14 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -24. -26. -29. -32. -36. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -14. -15. -19. -24. -26. -27. -29. -30. -33. -36. -38. -39. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 40.7 71.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/22/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/22/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/22/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 45 36 32 30 30 33 27 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 45 41 39 39 42 36 38 38 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 45 45 48 42 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 43 46 40 42 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT