* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/22/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 56 51 44 37 31 25 23 20 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 42 34 30 30 31 31 28 26 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 59 42 34 30 30 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 11 8 10 16 14 20 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 0 -1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 119 146 160 193 208 208 220 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 24.0 22.9 21.8 19.7 17.5 16.7 15.4 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 98 91 85 76 71 71 71 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 83 78 73 68 64 65 67 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 5 3 1 5 2 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 63 65 64 63 60 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 14 11 10 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -19 3 4 -6 30 26 5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 29 45 21 13 42 19 35 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 1 0 1 8 -3 14 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 197 92 7 -45 -90 -73 -54 22 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 40.4 41.4 42.1 42.8 43.8 44.4 44.9 45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.0 71.2 71.4 71.6 71.9 71.1 69.6 66.3 60.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 9 7 6 6 9 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 18 CX,CY: -1/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -8. -13. -17. -23. -28. -32. -35. -39. -42. -46. -47. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -19. -20. -22. -22. -23. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -21. -28. -34. -40. -42. -45. -46. -49. -53. -55. -54. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 39.4 71.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/22/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/22/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/22/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 60 42 34 30 30 31 31 28 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 61 43 35 31 31 32 32 29 27 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 43 35 31 31 32 32 29 27 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 47 43 43 44 44 41 39 37 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT