* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/22/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 64 61 56 48 39 33 29 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 64 61 43 31 30 32 29 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 66 63 57 42 31 30 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 15 15 12 13 16 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 3 -1 -3 2 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 112 117 115 134 149 196 210 188 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 25.9 23.7 22.9 22.4 18.6 17.3 16.0 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 115 96 90 87 73 71 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 98 82 76 74 66 65 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 3 5 4 1 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 63 65 66 64 63 53 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 19 16 13 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -25 -23 3 -1 14 28 -8 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 0 20 42 27 0 39 29 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -4 -2 -3 0 0 13 2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 366 227 73 14 -43 -95 -65 24 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 39.1 40.5 41.2 41.8 43.2 44.0 44.1 45.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.9 71.1 71.4 71.6 71.9 71.9 70.8 68.4 67.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 11 7 7 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 20 CX,CY: 7/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -26. -30. -33. -36. -39. -43. -44. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -15. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -9. -17. -26. -32. -36. -40. -43. -47. -50. -53. -55. -54. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 37.6 70.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/22/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.3% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/22/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/22/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 64 61 43 31 30 32 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 62 59 41 29 28 30 27 27 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 40 28 27 29 26 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 37 25 24 26 23 23 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT