* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/21/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 63 62 55 48 40 33 27 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 63 62 44 32 30 31 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 63 59 42 31 30 33 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 13 17 18 13 11 20 23 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 3 1 -5 0 0 1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 99 114 119 121 147 200 201 189 223 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.4 29.0 26.6 24.5 24.2 24.7 21.3 19.3 16.9 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 145 154 121 102 98 100 83 78 74 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 127 131 102 86 81 81 72 71 70 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.6 -53.3 -53.9 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 6 4 4 2 5 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 61 62 64 66 65 61 53 46 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 21 16 13 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -15 0 -15 -13 10 21 19 -18 -36 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 21 5 17 29 15 -15 29 24 -12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 -7 -6 -1 0 7 7 -8 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 357 313 320 236 127 -52 -169 -128 39 -25 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 35.3 37.0 38.4 39.7 41.2 42.2 42.7 43.3 43.9 44.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.7 72.3 71.9 72.0 72.2 73.1 73.6 72.5 69.9 65.4 59.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 16 14 11 7 4 7 13 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 36 35 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -23. -26. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -15. -19. -23. -26. -27. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 2. -5. -12. -20. -27. -33. -39. -42. -45. -47. -48. -48. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 33.6 72.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/21/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 12.1% 8.5% 8.5% 6.3% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.7% 1.4% 1.2% 0.6% 3.3% 2.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.0% 3.3% 3.2% 2.3% 4.2% 0.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/21/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/21/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 63 63 62 44 32 30 31 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 61 61 60 42 30 28 29 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 55 37 25 23 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 31 19 17 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT