* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/21/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 63 64 60 53 46 43 38 34 32 28 25 23 23 23 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 63 64 60 35 30 30 29 25 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 64 64 55 34 30 30 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 6 9 14 16 19 13 15 13 19 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 0 3 -4 -4 -1 0 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 38 120 139 143 142 167 185 231 237 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.6 25.7 24.0 24.5 23.5 20.1 18.8 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 148 148 112 96 98 92 78 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 128 126 95 81 80 76 69 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 8 4 5 2 6 3 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 60 59 62 62 65 65 61 55 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 20 21 20 14 11 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -5 -7 7 -19 28 16 52 22 -8 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 29 17 8 9 37 5 31 12 -27 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 1 -1 1 -7 -1 -1 6 -3 23 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 381 310 301 269 188 12 -91 -135 -57 101 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 34.1 35.7 37.3 38.9 40.6 41.5 42.2 42.6 43.0 43.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.4 72.9 72.4 72.3 72.3 73.2 73.5 72.9 71.6 69.0 65.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 17 16 16 13 7 4 4 8 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 37 38 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -24. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -7. -12. -15. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. -7. -14. -17. -22. -26. -28. -31. -35. -37. -37. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 32.5 73.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/21/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 10.3% 9.3% 6.5% 4.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 2.6% 2.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.2% 3.4% 2.5% 1.6% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/21/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/21/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 63 64 60 35 30 30 29 25 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 60 61 62 58 33 28 28 27 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 58 54 29 24 24 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 47 22 17 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT