* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/21/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 67 69 69 63 57 50 44 39 36 32 29 27 26 27 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 67 69 69 48 32 30 30 27 24 20 17 15 15 16 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 65 68 71 67 44 31 30 30 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 6 8 13 15 14 11 17 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 3 3 0 -6 1 -1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 336 9 136 127 135 166 186 219 213 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.5 24.3 23.4 22.8 19.1 18.2 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 152 148 146 100 93 88 74 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 132 132 129 124 84 78 74 66 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 9 3 3 2 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 62 60 63 64 65 64 61 51 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 20 23 24 19 16 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -12 -7 -4 0 -13 18 45 39 30 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 -3 38 32 12 37 23 -2 30 20 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 11 17 4 -6 -7 0 1 9 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 438 366 316 296 292 108 -55 -137 -115 -1 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.8 34.0 35.7 37.4 39.9 41.3 42.4 43.1 43.5 43.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.7 73.3 72.9 72.5 72.0 72.1 72.7 72.8 72.2 70.3 67.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 15 17 15 10 7 5 5 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 30 35 40 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -23. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. -2. -6. -11. -14. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 3. -3. -10. -16. -21. -24. -28. -31. -33. -34. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 31.6 73.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/21/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.34 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 12.9% 8.9% 8.8% 6.5% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.9% 2.9% 2.3% 1.1% 4.6% 3.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.3% 4.0% 3.7% 2.5% 4.6% 1.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 5.0% 18.0% 12.0% 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/21/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/21/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 67 69 69 48 32 30 30 27 24 20 17 15 15 16 18HR AGO 60 59 61 64 66 66 45 29 27 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 61 61 40 24 22 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 52 31 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT