* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/20/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 60 62 65 66 61 52 42 34 29 24 20 19 19 20 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 60 62 65 66 53 35 30 26 21 29 25 24 24 25 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 59 61 66 63 53 33 30 34 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 17 14 13 6 8 10 14 16 22 24 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 0 3 5 -1 -7 -2 -3 -1 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 9 350 349 14 126 146 175 186 193 199 227 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 24.8 22.6 21.7 19.5 18.0 16.1 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 153 152 149 103 88 83 75 74 72 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 129 133 133 126 87 74 71 67 68 68 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.7 -53.4 -54.1 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 3 3 1 3 2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 59 60 62 64 66 69 69 71 66 59 50 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 19 19 20 21 23 19 14 10 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -25 -28 -19 -16 -6 -11 2 21 24 9 18 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 33 22 -3 30 9 28 18 -11 36 -7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 2 7 10 2 0 0 2 3 7 -5 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 596 530 467 392 339 329 146 -4 -47 -19 54 -27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.7 31.4 32.7 34.0 37.3 39.8 41.3 42.1 42.8 43.4 44.3 45.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.6 73.6 73.5 73.1 72.6 71.6 71.3 71.8 71.7 71.0 69.2 65.7 60.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 10 14 16 15 10 6 4 5 11 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 26 28 30 33 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. -3. -11. -18. -23. -25. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 6. -3. -13. -21. -26. -31. -35. -36. -36. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.0 73.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/20/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.6% 9.4% 8.6% 6.5% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 11.7% 5.8% 2.3% 1.8% 6.1% 4.3% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 9.1% 5.2% 3.7% 2.8% 5.6% 5.0% 0.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/20/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/20/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 58 60 62 65 66 53 35 30 26 21 29 25 24 24 25 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 60 63 64 51 33 28 24 19 27 23 22 22 23 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 58 59 46 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 50 51 38 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT