* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/20/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 58 60 65 67 65 59 51 42 35 31 27 21 18 17 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 58 60 65 67 65 43 36 27 20 21 23 21 17 16 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 58 59 64 66 57 44 37 38 40 35 39 40 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 21 14 14 12 5 7 9 13 20 25 28 27 31 31 54 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 0 4 2 -4 -4 0 -4 0 0 -3 8 9 7 SHEAR DIR 9 4 5 349 342 111 122 176 222 199 196 211 240 243 236 241 258 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.0 25.5 23.0 21.0 20.1 20.1 18.0 18.7 18.4 16.1 13.5 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 153 153 139 110 91 80 76 77 75 78 78 73 66 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 128 130 132 120 93 78 69 66 69 69 72 73 68 63 61 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -53.2 -54.1 -53.8 -52.9 -50.9 -49.7 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 9 4 4 1 4 2 6 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 57 59 63 63 65 68 70 66 66 63 53 53 45 41 27 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 19 19 23 24 22 18 14 10 8 9 10 9 11 15 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -25 -18 -17 -19 -2 -23 6 6 28 11 11 62 54 83 51 -3 200 MB DIV 6 26 29 18 20 58 -4 54 9 49 11 25 1 43 39 51 12 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 2 11 5 -5 2 3 5 -4 6 -18 -25 -67 -55 -52 LAND (KM) 633 559 484 420 376 365 235 51 -5 12 63 124 -12 161 90 355 427 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.6 31.1 32.1 33.0 36.1 39.1 41.1 42.4 42.7 42.5 43.1 44.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.8 73.2 73.7 73.3 73.0 71.7 70.8 70.9 71.0 70.5 69.7 67.3 63.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 13 16 13 9 4 3 6 13 19 22 18 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 29 31 28 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. 2. 4. 1. -5. -11. -17. -21. -20. -19. -20. -17. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 10. 12. 10. 4. -4. -13. -20. -24. -28. -34. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.0 72.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/20/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 11.7% 7.9% 7.4% 5.5% 9.8% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 8.4% 3.9% 1.6% 1.3% 4.9% 4.5% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.9% 4.0% 3.0% 2.3% 4.9% 5.0% 0.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/20/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/20/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 58 58 60 65 67 65 43 36 27 20 21 23 21 17 16 18HR AGO 55 54 56 56 58 63 65 63 41 34 25 18 19 21 19 15 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 53 58 60 58 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 52 54 52 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT