* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/20/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 58 58 62 67 68 62 56 49 46 40 31 23 18 17 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 58 58 62 67 68 62 56 49 46 40 31 24 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 55 55 56 59 63 62 54 47 44 44 43 44 37 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 20 17 15 8 8 16 14 20 20 15 24 33 48 31 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 2 2 2 -1 -4 -4 -4 1 3 3 5 14 4 SHEAR DIR 26 17 7 8 352 346 150 165 187 179 188 204 231 231 242 260 251 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.4 24.9 22.4 21.2 20.2 18.2 18.4 19.1 15.6 11.9 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 152 153 149 144 104 87 80 78 74 76 80 73 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 126 127 131 129 122 87 74 69 68 68 70 73 69 66 65 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -52.5 -50.2 -48.3 -47.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.6 1.1 0.0 0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 10 9 7 2 2 0 2 2 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 51 56 58 61 65 67 67 68 71 67 60 51 43 33 35 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 18 19 21 22 18 15 12 12 10 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -51 -30 -29 -25 -12 -7 -13 5 33 44 57 99 63 94 188 100 200 MB DIV -11 1 25 20 13 40 27 24 23 0 43 29 9 -4 0 9 2 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -3 0 4 11 2 0 0 -1 0 3 -5 -36 -123 -76 -17 LAND (KM) 704 644 585 520 458 363 387 194 48 18 77 131 42 38 -28 271 552 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.0 30.3 31.0 31.7 34.3 37.4 39.8 41.2 42.0 42.3 43.0 44.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.6 73.2 73.2 73.2 72.1 70.8 70.3 70.2 69.9 69.3 67.3 64.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 10 15 14 10 6 3 5 11 15 20 19 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 26 27 29 29 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -16. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. -1. -6. -12. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 12. 13. 7. 1. -6. -9. -15. -24. -32. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.7 72.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/20/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 336.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.7% 7.8% 7.4% 5.6% 9.4% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 7.6% 3.9% 1.5% 1.4% 3.9% 3.3% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.6% 4.0% 3.0% 2.3% 4.4% 4.4% 0.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/20/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/20/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 58 58 62 67 68 62 56 49 46 40 31 24 25 24 18HR AGO 55 54 55 57 57 61 66 67 61 55 48 45 39 30 23 24 23 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 53 57 62 63 57 51 44 41 35 26 19 20 19 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 49 54 55 49 43 36 33 27 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT