* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/19/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 56 57 58 64 66 65 60 53 46 37 31 35 44 37 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 56 57 58 64 66 65 60 53 46 37 31 35 44 37 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 54 55 57 61 64 59 51 45 42 41 43 49 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 23 20 16 11 7 7 12 15 18 27 28 29 34 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 4 -1 -1 1 -3 1 0 -4 -2 5 SHEAR DIR 31 27 22 4 10 345 160 138 154 177 191 192 209 237 239 260 269 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 27.9 26.2 23.7 21.5 20.8 20.0 18.6 21.1 21.5 19.2 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 152 152 153 137 116 95 81 79 78 75 84 87 79 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 127 126 128 131 118 97 80 70 68 69 69 75 77 72 68 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 4 3 1 3 1 4 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 49 52 56 60 64 66 65 69 68 68 67 58 54 37 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 19 19 17 21 22 21 18 15 12 10 9 15 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -49 -48 -39 -26 -25 -12 -24 2 -1 27 14 24 74 30 6 -35 200 MB DIV 0 -20 -10 17 28 11 54 -1 48 -10 54 8 47 9 8 -11 0 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -4 -3 -2 9 7 -6 4 -2 1 -3 5 -3 -16 -14 -22 LAND (KM) 772 709 649 585 522 408 400 307 141 35 48 160 100 176 263 200 319 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.6 31.1 33.1 35.9 38.6 40.4 41.4 41.8 42.1 42.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.0 71.8 72.5 72.8 73.0 72.5 71.3 70.2 69.9 69.8 69.4 68.1 65.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 13 15 11 7 4 4 7 11 14 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 24 25 26 25 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. 3. 3. 2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -18. -11. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 11. 10. 5. -2. -9. -18. -24. -20. -11. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.6 71.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/19/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 9.7% 6.8% 6.5% 4.9% 8.5% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 6.6% 3.4% 1.4% 1.5% 4.0% 3.6% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.6% 3.4% 2.7% 2.1% 4.2% 4.3% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/19/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/19/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 56 57 58 64 66 65 60 53 46 37 31 35 44 37 18HR AGO 55 54 54 56 57 58 64 66 65 60 53 46 37 31 35 44 37 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 54 55 61 63 62 57 50 43 34 28 32 41 34 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 47 53 55 54 49 42 35 26 20 24 33 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT