* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/19/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 66 68 69 77 76 72 65 60 53 46 40 35 33 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 66 68 69 77 76 72 65 60 53 46 40 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 63 64 66 71 78 77 68 57 50 47 47 47 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 28 26 25 21 16 11 7 13 1 4 9 18 22 27 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -2 2 0 0 1 1 -3 1 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 18 28 34 33 24 8 337 65 73 32 187 187 189 208 241 261 279 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 28.7 27.6 25.7 23.0 20.4 20.0 18.9 19.8 18.9 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 158 155 153 154 159 148 132 110 89 78 78 78 81 76 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 134 129 128 129 135 125 110 90 75 68 70 71 73 69 66 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 5 5 2 4 2 3 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 53 54 60 64 66 67 69 71 71 63 57 53 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 17 17 19 20 26 25 24 20 18 16 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -40 -40 -43 -47 -22 -22 -16 -22 -4 -13 -3 5 23 16 11 22 200 MB DIV -1 8 11 -7 -6 21 22 41 7 37 -10 48 -25 24 -24 21 -23 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -8 -5 -2 -3 14 6 -3 3 0 5 1 21 13 13 9 LAND (KM) 916 832 754 701 649 516 392 394 364 216 140 110 164 82 141 202 103 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 31.1 33.1 35.3 37.9 39.7 40.5 41.2 41.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.0 70.1 71.3 71.9 72.5 73.1 72.7 71.4 70.6 69.9 69.4 68.8 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 6 6 8 11 13 11 7 4 4 8 16 16 12 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 28 26 25 27 28 24 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. 0. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 8. 8. 5. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 17. 16. 12. 5. -0. -7. -14. -20. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.5 69.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/19/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 12.6% 8.4% 8.4% 6.2% 8.9% 7.8% 6.8% Logistic: 6.1% 10.2% 6.3% 5.5% 6.1% 5.9% 4.8% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 8.9% 5.2% 4.7% 4.1% 5.0% 4.2% 3.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 13.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/19/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/19/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 65 66 68 69 77 76 72 65 60 53 46 40 35 33 18HR AGO 60 59 61 62 63 65 66 74 73 69 62 57 50 43 37 32 30 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 58 60 61 69 68 64 57 52 45 38 32 27 25 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 53 54 62 61 57 50 45 38 31 25 20 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT