* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/19/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 66 65 68 73 76 77 72 63 55 48 41 38 35 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 66 65 68 73 76 77 72 63 55 48 41 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 65 66 67 68 73 79 77 65 53 46 43 43 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 24 27 28 25 17 10 5 8 14 9 11 13 19 25 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -2 -2 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 20 18 26 29 31 9 355 350 115 113 137 183 201 225 276 286 294 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.3 28.4 26.9 25.5 21.9 21.5 17.1 19.9 19.6 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 159 159 157 153 156 158 143 122 107 84 84 74 82 80 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 134 134 133 128 132 135 121 100 88 72 73 70 75 72 71 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.6 -54.3 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 -0.7 -0.1 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 4 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 52 54 51 59 61 66 68 70 68 68 69 66 63 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 16 18 20 22 24 21 18 14 12 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -48 -36 -44 -48 -36 -25 -23 -3 -1 4 -10 -19 -31 -49 -36 -42 200 MB DIV -30 0 13 21 -4 39 3 60 32 30 33 -10 33 9 16 29 -10 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -7 -5 -2 4 5 1 0 0 4 1 4 11 13 25 LAND (KM) 969 901 837 778 722 586 464 382 403 307 208 90 32 84 118 237 265 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.4 31.7 33.8 36.5 38.6 39.8 40.9 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.0 69.0 69.9 70.6 71.4 73.0 73.1 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.8 69.7 69.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 9 13 13 8 6 5 8 18 20 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 31 29 27 26 29 29 23 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 4. -2. -8. -11. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 8. 13. 16. 17. 12. 3. -5. -11. -19. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.8 68.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/19/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 446.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.47 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 13.1% 8.7% 8.5% 6.2% 8.9% 7.9% 8.0% Logistic: 7.2% 11.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.7% 7.2% 6.2% 3.6% Bayesian: 1.2% 7.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 10.6% 5.7% 5.1% 4.3% 5.5% 4.8% 3.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/19/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/19/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 2( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 65 66 65 68 73 76 77 72 63 55 48 41 38 35 18HR AGO 60 59 61 62 63 62 65 70 73 74 69 60 52 45 38 35 32 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 58 57 60 65 68 69 64 55 47 40 33 30 27 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 50 53 58 61 62 57 48 40 33 26 23 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT