* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/18/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 59 61 62 63 64 68 73 77 73 66 58 52 46 42 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 59 61 62 63 64 68 73 77 73 66 58 52 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 58 59 60 60 62 65 72 74 64 53 47 44 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 18 24 26 22 24 17 12 7 10 9 6 5 14 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 2 4 0 -1 0 0 3 0 5 2 0 1 6 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 13 18 16 14 17 21 353 354 356 32 24 360 360 300 286 287 297 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.2 28.5 27.2 26.4 26.0 24.0 22.4 21.6 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 158 159 157 155 160 156 145 127 117 112 98 90 87 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 131 135 136 131 129 134 132 122 105 95 91 83 79 78 74 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 8 8 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 51 53 54 63 67 71 69 66 63 65 66 70 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 18 19 20 22 27 30 27 24 20 18 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -29 -46 -45 -35 -48 -45 -35 -31 -29 -25 -51 -41 -38 -50 -32 -22 200 MB DIV 2 -3 -30 -6 -2 -11 27 6 51 51 21 5 18 24 12 4 19 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -2 -2 -5 -7 -2 5 9 8 -4 0 3 -6 16 29 37 LAND (KM) 1096 1039 984 913 843 720 586 496 435 511 368 327 289 245 241 339 308 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.0 31.0 32.1 34.2 36.5 38.7 40.2 40.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.1 66.9 67.7 68.7 69.7 71.3 72.1 72.2 71.3 69.8 68.1 66.6 65.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 6 6 8 12 13 11 8 7 10 14 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 33 36 33 32 31 27 25 30 29 37 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 12. 6. -0. -3. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 13. 18. 22. 18. 11. 3. -3. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.0 66.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/18/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.41 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 11.5% 10.6% 6.4% 4.2% 8.6% 7.3% 5.7% Logistic: 4.0% 8.5% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 7.0% 4.9% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.4% 5.4% 3.8% 2.9% 5.2% 4.1% 2.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/18/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/18/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 58 59 61 62 63 64 68 73 77 73 66 58 52 46 42 18HR AGO 55 54 56 57 59 60 61 62 66 71 75 71 64 56 50 44 40 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 54 55 56 57 61 66 70 66 59 51 45 39 35 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 48 49 50 54 59 63 59 52 44 38 32 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT