* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/18/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 58 60 62 60 62 69 72 75 65 56 45 38 34 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 58 60 62 60 62 69 72 75 65 56 45 38 34 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 57 58 59 60 59 59 65 69 65 56 48 43 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 18 19 22 26 20 24 20 6 10 7 16 21 33 35 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 2 3 0 -2 2 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 -1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 357 10 17 14 11 29 4 360 346 25 8 301 320 312 321 326 332 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.0 27.2 25.5 25.7 24.6 22.9 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 154 154 154 154 153 151 155 152 138 127 109 111 102 93 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 131 131 130 130 127 125 131 130 117 104 90 92 86 80 77 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 51 51 54 56 64 65 69 65 59 54 53 54 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 16 16 16 17 19 19 21 25 26 28 24 20 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -30 -29 -45 -47 -43 -40 -43 -36 -34 -44 -42 -49 -47 -58 -58 -22 200 MB DIV -25 7 -4 -27 -6 22 2 38 18 43 11 25 -9 31 -51 3 -32 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -2 -3 -7 -2 -4 13 9 2 1 2 13 14 8 15 LAND (KM) 1152 1100 1050 981 909 787 646 554 493 485 431 373 359 397 364 424 404 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.5 31.4 32.8 35.2 38.0 39.9 40.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.3 66.1 66.9 67.8 68.7 70.4 71.8 72.1 71.6 70.4 68.4 66.2 63.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 10 15 15 11 9 10 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 33 35 33 31 27 23 23 29 22 24 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 9. 10. 13. 5. -1. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 5. 7. 14. 17. 20. 10. 1. -10. -17. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.1 65.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/18/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 390.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 10.2% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 7.3% 5.1% Logistic: 2.6% 9.0% 5.4% 4.2% 3.7% 5.4% 3.6% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.6% 4.2% 1.4% 1.2% 4.5% 3.6% 2.7% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/18/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/18/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 57 58 60 62 60 62 69 72 75 65 56 45 38 34 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 57 59 61 59 61 68 71 74 64 55 44 37 33 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 55 57 55 57 64 67 70 60 51 40 33 29 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 48 50 48 50 57 60 63 53 44 33 26 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT