* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/17/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 55 56 56 60 56 56 57 62 62 66 64 63 59 57 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 55 56 56 60 56 56 57 62 62 66 64 63 59 57 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 56 57 59 59 57 56 57 59 61 61 58 54 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 15 19 20 23 24 25 21 22 13 11 4 5 13 23 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 -2 2 0 -2 0 3 1 4 4 4 3 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 333 346 1 12 11 13 18 6 2 357 5 12 351 281 244 243 252 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.6 27.8 27.9 26.8 27.8 26.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 154 154 153 153 154 155 155 146 134 135 122 133 115 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 128 129 130 128 126 127 128 129 122 112 111 100 107 93 85 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 49 50 49 52 56 63 63 66 61 56 53 56 60 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 18 15 15 17 21 21 24 23 23 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -27 -32 -34 -28 -51 -44 -58 -37 -46 -55 -65 -52 -47 -27 3 49 200 MB DIV -22 -47 -19 -1 7 -22 15 -12 23 17 30 10 11 14 25 -12 8 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -3 -5 -4 -6 -5 -5 1 10 -1 -2 -1 2 -10 -3 LAND (KM) 1223 1173 1124 1068 1014 874 777 683 572 565 681 663 565 487 523 470 376 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.5 31.0 32.2 33.4 34.8 36.4 38.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.2 64.9 65.5 66.3 67.0 68.8 69.9 70.7 71.1 70.2 68.3 66.4 65.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 6 9 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 28 34 37 27 24 23 27 25 24 16 50 1 15 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 2. -1. -2. -1. 4. 4. 7. 4. 3. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 10. 6. 6. 7. 12. 12. 16. 14. 13. 9. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 30.4 64.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/17/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 10.5% 10.3% 6.2% 4.0% 8.3% 7.9% 5.4% Logistic: 2.0% 6.3% 3.7% 2.2% 1.2% 4.1% 3.7% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.9% 4.7% 2.8% 1.7% 4.1% 3.9% 2.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/17/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/17/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 55 56 56 60 56 56 57 62 62 66 64 63 59 57 18HR AGO 50 49 50 52 53 53 57 53 53 54 59 59 63 61 60 56 54 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 49 53 49 49 50 55 55 59 57 56 52 50 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 41 45 41 41 42 47 47 51 49 48 44 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT