* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/17/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 54 56 55 55 56 58 60 61 60 58 55 54 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 54 56 55 55 56 58 60 61 60 58 55 54 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 53 55 56 54 52 52 55 57 58 56 53 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 14 19 17 27 23 25 20 18 16 14 15 17 19 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 1 4 -2 -3 3 -1 0 -1 2 2 4 2 4 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 342 332 351 2 10 24 20 22 2 354 357 12 33 30 4 344 349 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.2 27.8 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 153 153 153 154 151 153 155 154 148 138 134 142 140 137 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 128 127 128 129 126 126 127 128 123 113 111 121 117 108 102 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 6 5 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 49 49 49 53 56 60 63 65 65 60 55 49 48 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 14 15 14 13 14 17 20 22 23 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -30 -33 -39 -37 -43 -39 -43 -45 -37 -55 -43 -50 -59 -64 -87 -36 200 MB DIV -16 -20 -58 -21 -6 -21 10 -12 12 23 31 15 -4 -12 6 -28 0 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 0 -4 -2 -6 -4 -4 0 3 6 -3 1 21 14 -3 LAND (KM) 1233 1186 1140 1092 1046 933 815 684 594 581 667 720 716 745 828 860 888 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.5 31.2 32.1 33.4 34.6 35.7 36.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.0 64.6 65.3 65.9 66.5 68.1 69.4 70.5 70.9 70.0 68.5 66.8 65.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 8 9 7 9 14 12 5 1 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 27 30 36 30 24 23 27 25 25 22 14 39 20 27 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.5 64.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/17/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 10.4% 7.3% 7.0% 5.0% 8.1% 8.5% 8.6% Logistic: 3.6% 15.5% 9.7% 3.5% 2.3% 7.8% 7.7% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 9.5% 5.9% 3.5% 2.5% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/17/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/17/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 50 51 54 56 55 55 56 58 60 61 60 58 55 54 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 48 51 53 52 52 53 55 57 58 57 55 52 51 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 46 48 47 47 48 50 52 53 52 50 47 46 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 39 41 40 40 41 43 45 46 45 43 40 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT