* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/17/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 54 58 58 59 57 57 54 59 59 60 61 62 65 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 54 58 58 59 57 57 54 59 59 60 61 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 54 56 59 59 58 56 55 56 59 62 63 63 62 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 10 12 14 18 21 26 23 21 23 13 11 6 8 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 1 4 -2 2 0 -4 -1 1 -2 1 -4 -1 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 356 348 341 355 1 16 14 28 5 4 7 19 25 57 83 118 212 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 27.6 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 155 155 154 154 151 151 151 147 144 132 139 138 135 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 127 128 130 129 129 124 123 122 120 121 112 116 113 108 111 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 49 50 50 50 55 58 63 65 69 65 57 52 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 11 12 12 15 17 19 20 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -33 -27 -32 -37 -29 -50 -47 -51 -46 -52 -31 -33 -20 -34 -40 -37 200 MB DIV -10 -21 -22 -46 -31 2 -32 13 -1 23 11 43 -3 25 10 35 9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -1 0 -5 -6 -4 -3 -3 0 13 -1 -2 -17 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1269 1239 1209 1163 1118 1000 882 750 665 626 649 749 769 819 921 971 921 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.9 31.8 32.6 33.2 34.2 35.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.5 63.9 64.3 64.9 65.5 67.0 68.6 69.9 70.2 70.0 69.3 67.7 65.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 5 4 4 6 10 12 11 9 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 26 26 28 37 27 21 21 23 22 24 18 24 13 17 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 13. 13. 14. 12. 12. 9. 14. 14. 15. 16. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.6 63.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/17/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 13.8% 8.9% 7.9% 5.7% 9.1% 10.5% 11.5% Logistic: 8.4% 30.3% 23.7% 7.1% 3.7% 10.0% 7.9% 9.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 15.6% 11.1% 5.0% 3.1% 6.4% 6.2% 6.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/17/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/17/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 53 54 58 58 59 57 57 54 59 59 60 61 62 65 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 50 54 54 55 53 53 50 55 55 56 57 58 61 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 48 48 49 47 47 44 49 49 50 51 52 55 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 40 41 39 39 36 41 41 42 43 44 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT