* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/17/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 51 54 56 56 54 52 51 49 51 52 55 62 64 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 51 54 56 56 54 52 51 49 51 52 55 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 52 56 57 57 54 53 52 53 54 55 58 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 10 10 17 19 25 23 26 21 19 11 6 8 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 0 2 -2 0 -1 -4 -3 1 0 1 -3 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 359 358 343 346 345 357 21 31 25 12 9 12 358 45 101 170 266 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 156 155 152 151 148 151 152 146 138 132 134 138 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 126 127 130 130 128 126 121 123 125 121 114 112 113 114 115 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.2 -55.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.8 -1.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 50 48 49 49 53 56 58 60 67 64 62 50 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 9 9 9 11 12 13 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -40 -35 -30 -38 -37 -45 -44 -46 -65 -54 -15 -18 -5 -29 -38 -51 200 MB DIV -26 -16 -22 -27 -47 -8 -17 -12 -14 1 29 20 25 25 33 21 1 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 1 -3 0 3 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1292 1271 1250 1219 1188 1077 955 822 727 678 655 665 733 778 864 917 908 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.8 31.4 32.4 33.6 34.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.1 63.5 63.8 64.2 64.7 66.1 67.7 69.3 70.3 70.4 69.8 68.9 67.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 6 3 4 6 8 9 12 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 26 27 32 33 23 21 20 23 21 22 18 10 14 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 14. 12. 11. 9. 11. 12. 15. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 30.8 63.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/17/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.1% 10.1% 8.8% 6.4% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 37.7% 31.6% 8.7% 3.9% 14.2% 10.6% 13.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 18.7% 14.1% 5.8% 3.4% 8.1% 3.5% 4.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/17/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/17/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 49 51 54 56 56 54 52 51 49 51 52 55 62 64 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 47 50 52 52 50 48 47 45 47 48 51 58 60 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 44 46 46 44 42 41 39 41 42 45 52 54 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 35 37 37 35 33 32 30 32 33 36 43 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT