* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082021 08/16/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 46 51 55 56 56 52 50 47 47 46 49 54 60 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 46 51 55 56 56 52 50 47 47 46 49 54 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 49 52 53 52 50 48 46 46 49 51 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 8 10 13 18 25 26 27 25 22 16 13 10 4 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -5 -1 -1 2 -3 0 -1 1 -2 0 -1 -1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 6 3 1 3 351 1 4 22 25 11 14 11 30 53 89 202 255 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.4 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 154 155 153 153 151 150 151 150 145 138 130 136 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 126 127 127 129 129 127 124 123 124 124 120 115 110 115 117 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -55.4 -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 4 2 700-500 MB RH 51 49 51 50 50 49 51 50 55 58 61 65 68 64 62 53 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 11 11 9 9 7 8 9 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -45 -42 -39 -36 -45 -35 -50 -48 -54 -65 -79 -56 -66 -43 -43 -27 200 MB DIV -23 -32 -11 -11 -19 -35 -4 -27 10 -18 15 2 25 -3 -4 27 6 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -6 -4 -4 -3 0 0 -7 0 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 1294 1281 1269 1247 1226 1151 1043 933 829 749 680 650 671 803 850 849 836 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 30.9 30.6 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.8 31.6 32.6 33.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.9 63.2 63.5 63.9 64.3 65.4 66.8 68.1 69.3 70.0 70.2 69.7 68.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 5 4 4 5 7 8 10 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 26 26 29 36 31 24 21 21 23 21 23 17 12 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):195/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -9. -9. -6. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 21. 22. 17. 15. 12. 12. 11. 14. 19. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.1 62.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.4% 9.2% 7.9% 5.8% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 40.4% 33.0% 9.2% 4.3% 15.6% 10.7% 13.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 18.8% 14.2% 5.7% 3.4% 8.3% 3.6% 4.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 43 46 51 55 56 56 52 50 47 47 46 49 54 60 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 42 47 51 52 52 48 46 43 43 42 45 50 56 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 42 46 47 47 43 41 38 38 37 40 45 51 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 37 38 38 34 32 29 29 28 31 36 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT