* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082021 08/16/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 45 49 51 49 45 43 44 46 44 46 47 50 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 40 45 49 51 49 45 43 44 46 44 46 47 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 42 45 46 45 43 40 39 40 40 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 11 11 14 19 24 31 33 32 24 20 18 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 -3 -6 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 23 3 1 6 355 5 15 26 22 15 15 19 6 23 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 154 154 154 156 155 153 151 150 151 148 144 137 131 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 126 126 126 129 129 127 123 121 123 122 118 114 111 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.6 -55.2 -55.5 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 49 52 52 50 51 51 54 58 62 63 67 60 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 7 8 10 11 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -37 -42 -41 -39 -38 -39 -40 -46 -52 -60 -59 -43 -56 -68 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -16 -41 -15 -7 -45 0 -23 -10 -14 0 22 20 -10 19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 1 1 1 -4 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1292 1287 1284 1268 1253 1186 1099 985 875 810 778 744 725 833 956 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.2 30.8 30.6 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.8 31.2 31.8 32.8 34.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.7 63.0 63.2 63.5 63.9 64.8 65.9 67.2 68.3 68.8 68.7 68.4 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 6 7 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 26 26 27 31 36 26 23 25 26 23 21 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -3. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 21. 19. 15. 13. 14. 16. 14. 16. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.5 62.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 10.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 32.9% 24.5% 6.1% 2.5% 8.8% 9.4% 10.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 15.1% 10.7% 2.0% 0.8% 5.6% 3.1% 3.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 40 45 49 51 49 45 43 44 46 44 46 47 50 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 41 45 47 45 41 39 40 42 40 42 43 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 40 42 40 36 34 35 37 35 37 38 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 32 34 32 28 26 27 29 27 29 30 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT