* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082021 08/16/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 45 49 51 50 48 43 44 44 44 44 46 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 40 45 49 51 50 48 43 44 44 44 44 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 46 45 43 41 39 39 40 41 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 8 8 12 11 20 23 28 32 32 26 23 19 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 49 31 2 5 353 3 19 24 35 26 23 21 33 12 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 151 152 152 152 153 153 152 152 152 151 145 142 138 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 124 124 124 125 127 127 124 123 122 123 118 118 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 50 51 53 51 52 52 53 57 58 61 65 67 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 9 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -37 -35 -41 -37 -39 -46 -44 -56 -47 -65 -51 -28 -18 -34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -14 -24 -30 -20 -14 -40 -4 -17 -1 -10 38 9 38 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 5 3 9 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1192 1239 1257 1246 1236 1181 1097 988 884 811 779 758 760 869 916 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 32.1 31.5 31.2 30.9 30.7 30.6 30.7 31.0 31.4 31.9 32.7 33.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.0 63.1 63.4 63.7 64.5 65.6 66.9 68.0 68.6 68.6 68.3 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 5 6 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 26 26 26 25 25 27 34 28 24 27 30 25 26 21 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -9. -9. -8. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 21. 20. 18. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 16. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.6 62.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 11.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 21.8% 13.8% 2.8% 1.2% 7.9% 8.8% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 11.5% 7.2% 0.9% 0.4% 5.4% 2.9% 3.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 40 45 49 51 50 48 43 44 44 44 44 46 49 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 41 45 47 46 44 39 40 40 40 40 42 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 40 42 41 39 34 35 35 35 35 37 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 32 34 33 31 26 27 27 27 27 29 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT