* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082021 08/16/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 44 48 49 49 46 44 45 45 44 45 48 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 44 48 49 49 46 44 45 45 44 45 48 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 44 44 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 8 8 12 16 23 30 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -5 -1 -5 3 -3 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 43 48 40 5 15 358 17 29 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 148 149 150 152 152 152 154 153 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 122 121 122 122 123 124 124 125 124 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.3 -55.9 -55.7 -55.9 -55.4 -55.5 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -1.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 52 52 50 49 52 51 50 51 53 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -42 -41 -38 -46 -43 -45 -54 -60 -62 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -14 -17 -29 -30 -28 -54 -6 -37 -20 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1112 1166 1221 1250 1253 1212 1140 1065 971 905 842 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 27 26 26 26 26 25 23 25 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. -1. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 18. 19. 19. 16. 14. 15. 15. 14. 15. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.5 62.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 20.5% 12.8% 3.4% 1.5% 7.1% 8.0% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 10.7% 6.7% 1.2% 0.5% 4.9% 2.7% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 EIGHT 08/16/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 39 44 48 49 49 46 44 45 45 44 45 48 51 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 41 45 46 46 43 41 42 42 41 42 45 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 39 40 40 37 35 36 36 35 36 39 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 31 32 32 29 27 28 28 27 28 31 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT