* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 08/15/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 38 42 44 46 44 43 40 48 47 51 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 38 42 44 46 44 43 40 48 47 51 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 34 34 34 32 31 33 36 37 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 12 10 15 15 18 25 26 27 26 25 29 19 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -5 -6 0 -3 3 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 1 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 79 36 43 50 46 15 9 10 27 35 38 26 26 18 30 11 17 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 148 148 147 150 152 153 152 152 149 148 154 156 157 152 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 120 120 120 122 124 125 124 125 121 119 129 135 140 138 133 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.8 -55.6 -55.6 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 50 49 53 54 51 52 51 51 51 51 53 55 58 54 49 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 8 9 13 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -57 -38 -37 -36 -36 -45 -66 -69 -82 -74 -71 -67 -73 -101 -83 -59 200 MB DIV -14 -19 -15 -17 -26 -9 -22 -35 -2 -24 3 -4 1 -14 4 14 15 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 -10 LAND (KM) 1051 1112 1154 1202 1232 1209 1160 1081 1005 944 904 911 943 1095 1298 1382 1556 LAT (DEG N) 34.1 33.5 33.0 32.5 32.1 31.6 31.4 31.3 31.2 30.9 30.7 30.5 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.8 62.7 62.8 62.8 63.0 63.6 64.3 65.3 66.3 67.3 68.0 68.1 67.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 4 4 2 1 7 12 16 19 23 HEAT CONTENT 18 25 27 27 26 26 25 23 26 33 30 30 33 24 25 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -18. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -2. -1. 2. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 19. 21. 19. 18. 15. 23. 22. 26. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 34.1 62.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 08/15/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 22.9% 15.4% 7.2% 3.5% 12.4% 9.6% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 10.9% 7.4% 2.4% 1.2% 4.1% 5.9% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 08/15/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 08/15/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 33 38 42 44 46 44 43 40 48 47 51 57 58 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 36 40 42 44 42 41 38 46 45 49 55 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 34 36 38 36 35 32 40 39 43 49 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 28 30 28 27 24 32 31 35 41 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT