* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 08/15/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 37 42 45 46 47 44 42 40 37 36 39 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 37 42 45 46 47 44 42 40 37 36 39 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 31 33 35 36 37 36 34 32 30 30 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 6 7 11 10 10 12 17 24 25 29 30 28 23 27 22 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -4 -7 0 -5 4 -3 1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 76 93 19 33 38 1 358 351 1 18 31 32 30 27 53 63 82 SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 138 142 143 146 145 147 150 152 152 153 150 152 155 149 144 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 112 115 116 118 118 118 122 123 124 124 120 123 131 130 127 124 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.8 -55.6 -55.7 -55.4 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -55.2 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 700-500 MB RH 54 51 52 54 53 50 52 50 52 53 53 54 59 61 63 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -69 -47 -34 -33 -29 -30 -47 -62 -69 -74 -81 -76 -52 -41 -39 -40 200 MB DIV -8 -7 -22 -17 -17 -26 -38 -54 -1 -27 -15 -13 5 11 15 3 15 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 3 4 -2 3 LAND (KM) 945 991 1042 1088 1130 1179 1156 1118 1046 990 929 909 911 974 1103 1083 1174 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 34.7 34.2 33.7 33.2 32.5 32.2 31.9 31.8 31.6 31.4 31.2 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.1 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.9 63.3 63.9 64.5 65.4 66.2 67.1 67.5 67.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 3 1 3 9 15 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 18 22 27 27 26 25 22 23 28 30 29 23 27 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 17. 20. 21. 22. 19. 17. 15. 12. 11. 14. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.1 63.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 08/15/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 8.8% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 11.1% 6.8% 2.2% 0.7% 5.5% 6.4% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.7% 4.4% 0.7% 0.2% 1.8% 2.1% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 08/15/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 08/15/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 37 42 45 46 47 44 42 40 37 36 39 45 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 35 40 43 44 45 42 40 38 35 34 37 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 36 39 40 41 38 36 34 31 30 33 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 30 31 32 29 27 25 22 21 24 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT