* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 08/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 44 46 45 42 40 35 31 28 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 44 46 45 42 40 35 31 28 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 36 36 35 32 30 27 26 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 6 7 11 8 14 15 27 30 38 36 35 33 32 29 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -5 -5 0 0 -3 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 65 76 86 29 34 28 1 2 5 14 21 19 12 17 24 37 32 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 139 143 145 147 148 148 151 152 153 152 150 147 151 154 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 108 112 116 117 119 119 119 122 123 125 125 123 118 124 130 127 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.9 -55.6 -55.7 -55.5 -55.6 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.3 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 53 56 54 52 55 52 52 49 52 51 54 54 57 60 62 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -64 -64 -41 -30 -20 -25 -32 -50 -65 -68 -67 -81 -73 -68 -85 -81 200 MB DIV -4 -10 -10 -31 -22 -9 -23 -43 -48 0 -15 -10 -14 8 -11 13 -39 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 2 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 2 5 5 2 LAND (KM) 904 942 992 1048 1096 1174 1197 1209 1161 1132 1087 1064 1036 1013 1016 1032 1118 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 35.3 34.9 34.4 33.9 33.0 32.5 32.2 31.9 31.6 31.2 30.5 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.0 62.7 62.4 62.3 62.3 62.4 62.9 63.3 64.0 64.5 65.3 66.1 66.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 1 4 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 19 20 22 24 26 26 25 23 23 28 31 32 31 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 2. -4. -10. -15. -21. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 20. 17. 15. 10. 6. 3. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.6 63.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 08/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.49 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 8.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 12.0% 8.0% 4.3% 1.5% 10.6% 6.5% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.8% 4.8% 1.4% 0.5% 3.5% 2.2% 2.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 08/15/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 08/15/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 44 46 45 42 40 35 31 28 40 40 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 39 42 44 43 40 38 33 29 26 38 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 35 38 40 39 36 34 29 25 22 34 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 30 32 31 28 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT