* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 08/15/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 40 45 48 50 50 50 47 44 40 38 38 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 40 45 48 50 50 50 47 44 40 38 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 36 40 42 43 44 43 42 41 38 36 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 6 6 12 11 16 19 23 30 34 36 34 27 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -6 0 -5 3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 76 72 80 93 22 40 9 19 8 8 13 20 20 18 37 40 37 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 134 140 145 146 149 150 152 152 153 151 151 151 150 151 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 108 114 118 119 121 121 124 124 126 125 125 124 124 128 132 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.9 -55.8 -56.0 -55.6 -55.9 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 53 56 53 52 54 51 53 52 53 54 55 56 59 60 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -66 -60 -64 -49 -30 -29 -37 -57 -66 -66 -66 -84 -83 -81 -46 -36 200 MB DIV -16 3 -10 -1 -39 -14 -24 -40 -48 -7 -43 -1 -11 -6 -12 19 2 700-850 TADV 4 4 2 3 2 2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 844 895 938 999 1058 1145 1202 1182 1141 1089 1053 1022 998 981 945 956 1026 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 35.6 35.3 34.8 34.2 33.2 32.4 32.0 31.6 31.3 30.8 30.2 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.5 63.2 62.9 62.6 62.5 62.6 63.0 63.7 64.4 65.2 66.0 66.9 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 4 2 4 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 19 20 20 25 26 26 23 22 26 32 33 35 35 33 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. -0. -6. -11. -17. -21. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. 22. 19. 15. 13. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.0 63.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 08/15/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 80.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.20 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 8.8% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 15.7% 9.8% 2.8% 0.9% 7.5% 10.7% 10.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.3% 5.4% 1.0% 0.3% 2.5% 3.6% 3.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 08/15/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 08/15/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 34 40 45 48 50 50 50 47 44 40 38 38 41 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 37 42 45 47 47 47 44 41 37 35 35 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 36 39 41 41 41 38 35 31 29 29 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 28 31 33 33 33 30 27 23 21 21 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT