* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 06/28/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 36 40 46 51 56 61 64 66 69 73 76 80 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 10 8 5 2 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 68 103 130 154 190 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.9 27.8 27.8 26.9 27.5 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 125 136 136 125 131 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 120 120 110 113 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.7 -56.8 -56.7 -56.5 -56.7 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 47 49 53 56 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -76 -78 -65 -79 -113 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 23 21 12 -6 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 9 13 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 538 416 280 142 0 -272 -448 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 4 22 15 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 39. 43. 46. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.1 74.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 06/28/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 9.8% 7.2% 6.6% 4.7% 8.5% 9.4% 13.3% Logistic: 1.8% 6.2% 3.8% 1.1% 0.4% 3.1% 3.4% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.4% 3.7% 2.6% 1.7% 3.9% 4.3% 5.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 06/28/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 06/28/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT