* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 06/27/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 39 41 45 48 51 53 50 44 39 36 35 34 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 30 28 27 27 28 29 29 23 18 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 28 27 27 27 28 29 35 36 36 36 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 4 6 20 10 7 18 38 45 39 40 39 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 -2 -2 0 2 4 10 6 5 2 SHEAR DIR 46 66 80 99 133 132 66 28 8 300 279 275 268 283 272 255 243 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.9 27.9 26.9 27.6 27.6 27.4 26.5 26.1 23.8 18.6 17.4 23.9 21.7 22.0 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 125 137 125 133 131 128 119 116 100 79 77 104 92 93 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 112 122 110 115 109 104 99 99 89 74 73 95 86 88 87 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -56.6 -56.4 -56.5 -56.6 -56.5 -56.1 -56.3 -55.7 -55.9 -55.9 -55.4 -55.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -1.2 -1.1 -1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 6 9 4 9 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 46 45 46 48 51 56 60 63 65 65 67 53 53 47 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -50 -78 -86 -74 -123 -89 -78 -55 -29 25 34 17 10 -6 -24 -45 200 MB DIV -15 -14 20 29 1 26 5 15 3 3 25 19 1 -25 -31 -17 14 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 -1 9 -8 2 -6 0 -5 23 14 -12 -38 -40 -31 -20 LAND (KM) 652 535 399 249 98 -151 -408 -546 -535 -327 -58 46 193 571 866 1318 1821 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.2 30.7 31.3 32.0 33.5 35.2 36.6 37.6 38.1 39.3 41.2 42.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.8 74.4 76.1 77.7 79.3 82.0 83.9 84.2 82.5 79.5 75.4 70.3 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 13 9 7 10 14 19 23 25 31 31 31 35 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 4 22 6 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 2. -5. -12. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 20. 14. 9. 6. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.8 72.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 06/27/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 8.6% 6.6% 6.2% 4.3% 7.9% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 10.8% 6.7% 2.7% 1.4% 7.4% 6.1% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.6% 4.5% 3.0% 1.9% 5.1% 5.0% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 06/27/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 06/27/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 30 28 27 27 28 29 29 23 18 15 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 28 26 25 25 26 27 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 23 21 20 20 21 22 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT