* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 06/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 42 47 50 54 56 55 50 40 31 23 17 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 31 28 27 28 29 28 26 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 35 29 27 27 28 29 35 38 38 38 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 9 8 4 5 8 9 11 16 31 49 64 66 64 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -4 -1 -3 0 -5 0 -1 1 0 3 3 3 11 15 SHEAR DIR 17 36 48 47 84 156 129 20 20 307 249 263 266 270 279 267 242 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.6 26.3 27.6 27.5 26.6 26.1 24.9 18.7 13.1 12.6 9.5 17.0 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 123 124 133 118 132 129 120 117 108 80 71 72 71 80 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 110 110 119 104 113 107 100 100 95 74 69 70 70 77 75 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.0 -56.8 -56.7 -56.9 -56.4 -56.6 -56.1 -56.5 -55.7 -56.4 -56.1 -56.1 -55.4 -54.8 -53.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -1.0 -1.4 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 9 6 8 4 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 52 49 48 49 54 56 60 64 63 63 64 67 58 57 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -22 -42 -61 -71 -86 -114 -82 -48 -27 42 82 37 -12 13 42 100 200 MB DIV -2 -13 -10 10 22 -18 5 10 -5 20 18 53 31 -13 -9 34 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 2 -3 10 -2 0 -9 3 -12 21 32 5 2 12 52 LAND (KM) 818 710 591 476 317 31 -237 -456 -534 -361 -92 -1 17 225 410 1130 1338 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.3 29.7 30.1 30.8 32.3 34.1 35.9 37.3 38.4 39.6 41.6 43.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.1 72.6 74.2 75.7 77.3 80.1 82.6 83.7 82.8 79.8 75.6 70.5 64.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 14 12 8 10 15 20 23 25 28 34 40 41 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 3 16 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 18. 16. 14. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 6. -1. -13. -24. -33. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 12. 17. 20. 24. 26. 25. 20. 10. 1. -7. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.0 71.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 06/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 6.4% 5.5% 5.5% 3.7% 7.4% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 9.9% 5.8% 3.3% 1.8% 11.2% 11.9% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.6% 3.8% 2.9% 1.8% 6.2% 6.8% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 06/27/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 06/27/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 41 31 28 27 28 29 28 26 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 29 26 25 26 27 26 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 24 21 20 21 22 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT