* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL082020 07/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 37 35 37 37 38 39 43 45 47 48 46 43 41 41 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 15 13 17 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 354 360 316 325 360 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 27.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 147 134 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 135 129 117 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 14 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 68 69 69 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 16 12 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 42 34 32 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 35 52 27 19 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -9 0 7 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -179 -258 -316 -373 -437 -316 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.2 100.0 100.7 101.4 102.1 103.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 7 9 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -8. -5. -4. -4. -4. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -22. -22. -23. -22. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -10. -8. -8. -7. -6. -2. -0. 2. 3. 1. -2. -4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.2 99.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 HANNA 07/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 9.9% 7.3% 6.0% 5.2% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 1.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% Consensus: 1.3% 4.5% 3.2% 2.3% 1.9% 3.2% 0.5% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 HANNA 07/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 HANNA 07/26/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 36 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT