* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL082020 07/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 54 52 47 43 41 41 42 43 44 44 43 40 38 37 V (KT) LAND 60 46 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 45 37 32 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 26 16 12 17 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 329 348 359 325 329 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.6 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 156 154 154 144 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 136 135 136 126 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.7 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 13 14 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 65 69 69 68 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 17 13 11 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 42 36 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 36 29 42 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -6 5 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -107 -185 -261 -317 -379 -360 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.3 100.0 100.8 101.5 102.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 5 8 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -7. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -17. -19. -19. -18. -17. -16. -16. -17. -20. -22. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.5 98.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 HANNA 07/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 13.9% 10.1% 8.8% 7.6% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.4% 5.4% 3.8% 3.1% 2.6% 3.6% 0.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 HANNA 07/26/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 HANNA 07/26/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 46 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 50 46 43 41 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 49 47 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT